Two independent reports give separate results to explain away the lack of increase in the average world temperature beginning in 2000 and lasting about a decade. They both come to the conclusion there was no long pause in the rise of the world’s average temperature – in other words it kept rising.
The first study that was conducted by researchers from the University of California at Los Angeles, Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the California Institute of Technology said the apparent period of no growth was caused by a decade long shift of ocean heat collection to another area. Their study found a heating of the top layer of water in the Indian Ocean with some residual heating still in the Pacific Ocean. This heating offset a corresponding temperature stability or change in the rest of the Pacific Ocean.
This study shows the shifting heat from one region to another as cooler ocean water absorbed more heat to bring its heat into balance with the other oceans. The research shows this phenomenon started in 2003 and lasted some ten years or so. As a result you should conclude there was no pause in the rise of the world’s heat. It was absorbed by another region of the ocean.
Researchers from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and LMI in McLean, Virginia conducted the second study. It re-examined data and estimates used by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
It finds that the data trends used by the IPCC were less than was justified by what the data actually showed. This was especially true for recent decades where “the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century.” This data does not support the notion of any slowdown at all in the rate of global warming.
In related activities a top court has ruled that a country must increase its commitment to reduce greenhouse gases. The government of the Netherlands was ordered by a court in The Hague to increase its commitment to cut at least 25% of its greenhouse-gas emissions by the year 2020 from levels in the year 1990. The upcoming European Union (EU) obligations would require the government of the Netherlands to target a 17% reduction. The Court has ruled this level is not enough in response to a lawsuit brought by an environmental group named Urgenda.
Two more studies of glaciers have not given us any good news. One study conducted by scientists at the World Glacier Monitoring Service completed an analysis of more than 47,000 separate observations dating back to the 1600’s. They conclude that glaciers are shrinking almost twice as fast as they were during the late twentieth century.
A second study offers an explanation at least for glaciers in Greenland that explains their rapid rate of disappearance. It appears these glaciers are more susceptible to global warming than was thought. This is because the use of sonar under the surface of the ocean has shown that the glaciers go hundreds of meters farther down under the water than previously thought or reflected on maps. This allows their ice to come into greater contact with the warmer layers of water in the Atlantic Ocean. This produces more melting of the glaciers than previously thought.
All of this shrinkage does not bode well for coastal areas around the world that are concerned about rising ocean levels. They were hoping for at least some refuge from global warming and its negative effects. This does not appear to be the case and will prompt continued monitoring of melting ice and the resulting sea levels around the world.
Of course the solution to this problem is to decrease temperature rise by putting less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. In other words we must slow the rate of global climate change.
Use the following links to access additional information or look at the original documents used to prepare this article.
http://www.nature.com/news/the-week-in-science-7-13-august-2015-1.18155 (scroll down to Trend Watch)